The price of May 2020 oil futures, for example, actually turned negative briefly in April 2020, meaning someone with storage capacity could essentially be paid for taking oil. A wide range of commodity prices suggested sustained recession-caliber conditions. And through the end of 2020, bond prices suggested that inflation would remain extremely low for years to come.
The government response was, in effect, aimed at preventing that. The Fed pumped $120 billion of cash into the financial system each month through its quantitative easing program of bond purchases, pledging to keep interest rates near zero far into the future.
The Fed also focused on a new framework for policy that had been in the works for years, known as “flexible average inflation targeting.” It was essentially trying to assure people that it was serious about not letting inflation fall persistently below its 2 percent target. It did so by making clear it would be comfortable allowing inflation to overshoot that level in the aftermath of a downturn.
But there were big differences between the economic environment of the 2010s and that of 2021. Among them: Fiscal policymakers this time took far more aggressive action to stimulate growth, whereas in the 2010s the Fed was, in effect, trying to offset the effects of fiscal austerity.
“The Fed thought that it had to make up for weak fiscal policy when the opposite was the case,” said Jason Furman, the Harvard economist.
Now, the Fed is just starting to taper its bond purchases and is still keeping rates near zero, amid low unemployment and high inflation. Leaders of the central bank, while acknowledging the pain caused by inflation, say they expect supply disruptions to heal over the coming months.