After that, Djokovic’s path becomes more a matter of conjecture. His third-round opponent could be Kei Nishikori, David Goffin or Mackenzie McDonald, the former U.C.L.A. star who is having a solid season. Djokovic’s fourth-round opponent could be Alex de Minaur or Aslan Karatsev, the Russian who made a surprise run to the Australian Open semifinals in January before losing to Djokovic, and then upset Djokovic in his home city of Belgrade on clay in the semifinals of the Serbia Open in April.
But Karatsev has struggled to win a singles match lately and top form will presumably be required to derail Djokovic in New York. He is a man on a mission and has proved through the years that he can handle the pressure that goes with daunting assignments. He has defeated Nadal twice on clay at his stronghold of Roland Garros, and toppled Federer three times on grass at his stronghold of Wimbledon.
Neither Federer nor Nadal will be in his way in New York. Both are out for the season (or beyond) with injuries. So is Dominic Thiem, the reigning U.S. Open men’s singles champion, who has been slow to recover from a wrist problem. Other than Djokovic, the only men in the U.S. Open draw who have won Grand Slam singles titles are Marin Cilic, the 2014 U.S. Open champion who has dropped to 36th in the rankings, and Andy Murray, who is No. 114 and still chasing his past form after hip resurfacing surgery.
Even with Serena Williams and Venus Williams’s withdrawals from the tournament, the women’s draw is brimming with major singles champions. There are 13 in all, including the No. 1-seeded Ashleigh Barty and No. 3 Naomi Osaka, a two-time U.S. Open champion who is in the same eighth of the draw as the past U.S. Open champions Sloane Stephens and Angelique Kerber. Stephens, now unseeded, will face Madison Keys in the first round in a rematch of their all-American 2017 U.S. Open final. The winner is likely to face Coco Gauff, 17, if Gauff can get past her tough first-round opponent, the 51st-ranked Magda Linette.
History argues against Djokovic having a cakewalk to the Grand Slam. The most recent player to come close — Serena Williams — was shocked in the semifinals of the 2015 U.S. Open by Roberta Vinci, an underpowered but resourceful Italian who was able to embrace that bright-spotlight moment with far more free-swinging panache than Williams.