That gives something to both the glass hall-full and the glass half-empty Knicks fans. If you’re an optimist, you assume that missing this many open shots is a fluke for Randle, that there is no way an N.B.A. All-Star will continue to shoot less than 27 percent when open, that it’s just a matter of when, not if, he breaks out of the shooting slump. A scientist might consider last season a control group: If Randle is getting the same shots as he was last year with better shooters around him, surely his stats will improve. After all, he’s still rebounding at a high level (10.2 a game) and the rest of his numbers are more or less where they need to be.
And as Thibodeau said, “You’re going to get great effort from Julius every day.”
If you’re a pessimist, Randle’s shooting struggles represent a regression to the mean — that last year was the fluke. Randle is a career 33.6 percent 3-point shooter who somehow turned himself into a 41.1 percent marksman last year. For the glass half-empty folks, this season’s poor performance lines up with Randle’s struggles in his first year as a Knick. That means that in two of his three years in New York, Randle hasn’t played well, a worrying sign given that the team has invested in him long-term.
There isn’t a systemic fix for Thibodeau. There’s no game plan that will get Randle’s shots to stop rimming out if he’s open. If Randle isn’t a shooting threat, Thibodeau could work more through him in the post. But Randle has had a habit of dribbling into double teams closer to the basket and forcing bad passes. This happened on Wednesday night against Dallas, when he had five turnovers. When Randle isn’t hitting jump shots, it can make scoring more difficult for the Knicks because his frontcourt teammate Robinson plays only at the rim — which is partially an indictment of Robinson’s inability to expand his range.
The bright side is how the Knicks are heading into the second half of the season. They’ve gone 7-3 in their last 10 games. At 21-21, they have the same record as they did last year at this point, before they ripped off a dominant second half. But it’s difficult to see how the Knicks sustain a rise in the standings without their best player producing at a high level. In the meantime, Thibodeau is projecting that the best approach for Randle is business as usual.
“Julius is passionate about the city, our fans, the game, winning. And that’s all that matters,” Thibodeau said, adding, “Keep moving forward.”