The Bengals (10-6) have clinched the A.F.C. North. Cincinnati does have a very, very long-shot chance for the bye: They would have to beat the Browns and have both Kansas City and Tennessee lose to sub- .500 opponents. Even if all that happened, the Bengals would also need either the Bills to beat the Jets (at least that one is likely), or the Dolphins to beat the Patriots. The New York Times’s Playoff Simulator gives them a 4 percent chance.
Both the Bills and the Patriots will make the playoffs, and either could still win the A.F.C. East division. The Bills (10-6) are heavy favorites, though. To take the title, they must only beat the Jets at home, as 17-point favorites. The Patriots (also 10-6, but with a worse divisional record) must beat the Dolphins at Miami and have the Bills somehow lose.
That leaves two more wild-card spots.
The Sunday night game between two 9-7 teams, the Chargers and the Raiders, is a pure playoff qualifier; the winning team is in. The Raiders have a backdoor way in as well, if both the Steelers and the Colts lose. The Chargers don’t have that option.
The Colts (9-7) are in a good position, needing just a win over the hapless Jaguars to get in the playoffs as a wild card.
The Steelers (8-7-1) must beat the Ravens on the road and have the Colts somehow lose to the Jaguars.
And Ravens fans shouldn’t give up hope. Though just 8-8, the team could sneak into the playoffs with an unlikely parlay of a win over the Steelers plus losses by the Colts and the Chargers, and wins by the Bengals and the Patriots. So we’re saying there’s a chance!