And, others noted, it is unlikely that Mr. Kerry would make such a high-profile trip to China if he thought he would return home empty-handed.
“If China does absolutely nothing around this summit, it’s going to be a direct slap in the face to Biden,” said Paul Bledsoe, strategic adviser for the Progressive Policy Institute, a Democratic research organization.
China has already announced it would release no net emissions of carbon by 2060. Several analysts said the Chinese government felt little need to set another new target, particularly on Mr. Biden’s timeline, and was cautious of being seen as caving to U.S. pressure.
Equally significant, Beijing leaders remain worried that the Biden administration’s assurances that the United States is truly prepared to curb its own emissions are as shaky as the ones former President Barack Obama made shortly before his successor gutted virtually all of his policies.
“It’s just hard to truly trust the U.S. administration,” said Taiya Smith, director of the China program for the Climate Leadership Council, a conservative group that promotes a carbon tax.
“Before countries can truly have confidence in the U.S., there’s going to have to be a lot to be shown for it,” Ms. Smith said. “We have to be able to demonstrate this is not just another passing fad of American politics.”
Li Shuo, senior climate policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia, said he thought if talks with Mr. Kerry went well this week, China may make an announcement of new targets at the Boao Forum for Asia, an annual conference that will be held in Boao, China, starting on Monday. That, he said, would allow China to make an announcement on its home turf to avoid the appearance of being pressured by the United States. But any new targets would give China something to deliver at Mr. Biden’s summit.