“The price effect is likely to be short-term,” David Goldwyn, who was a senior State Department official in the Obama administration, said about Mr. Biden’s announcement. “But part of the benefit of this release is that it will provide a bridge to when new physical supply comes online in the second half of this year from the U.S., Canada, Brazil and other countries.”
The oil market tends to go in cycles, so the release may be an opportunity for the government to sell high and, later, buy low, potentially earning billions of dollars for the Treasury. When the administration refills the reserve, however, it could drive up oil prices.
The release could partly backfire. Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a research note that a large discharge could cause “congestion” on the Gulf Coast, keeping new oil production from fields in West Texas out of pipelines and storage tanks.
Mr. Biden’s move could also discourage Saudi Arabia and other global producers from increasing supply to reduce prices. OPEC Plus, a group led by Saudi Arabia that includes Russia, on Thursday decided to maintain a policy of only modestly increasing production.
Bob McNally, who was an energy adviser to President George W. Bush, said the release w“is not big enough to offset the potential loss of Russian oil exports should the conflict and sanctions pressure continue to extend.”
The U.S. reserve contains nearly 600 million barrels, approximately a month of total American consumption. The maximum amount of oil the reserve can release is 4.4 million barrels a day.