The 2015 attack, which began in late December, was particularly instructive. It was directed at a major operator of Ukraine’s grid. Videos taken during the attack showed a skeleton crew of operators — the attackers knew the holidays would be a particularly vulnerable time — struggling to understand what was happening as hackers took over their screens remotely. Substations were flipped off. Neighborhood by neighborhood, lights went dark.
“It was jaw-dropping for us,” Andy Ozment, who ran cyberemergency response for the Department of Homeland Security and helped investigate the attacks, said at the time. “The exact scenario we were worried about wasn’t paranoia. It was playing out before our eyes.” The hackers had a final flourish: The last thing they turned off was the emergency power at the utility company’s operations center, so that the Ukrainian workers were left sitting in their seats in the dark, cursing.
With the holidays approaching again, American officials say they are on high alert. But if Mr. Putin does launch a cyberattack, either as a stand-alone action or as a precursor to a physical-world attack, it will most likely come after Orthodox Christmas, at the end of the first week of January, according to people briefed on the intelligence.
Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine
Card 1 of 5A brewing conflict. Antagonism between Ukraine and Russia has been simmering since 2014, when the Russian military crossed into Ukrainian territory, annexing Crimea and whipping up a rebellion in the east. A tenuous cease-fire was reached in 2015, but peace has been elusive.
A spike in hostilities. Russia has recently been building up forces near its border with Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s rhetoric toward its neighbor has hardened. Concern grew in late October, when Ukraine used an armed drone to attack a howitzer operated by Russian-backed separatists.
Ominous warnings. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention in Ukraine that could draw the United States and Europe into a new phase of the conflict.
The Kremlin’s position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATO’s eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscow’s military buildup was a response to Ukraine’s deepening partnership with the alliance.
A measured approach. President Biden has said he is seeking a stable relationship with Russia. So far, his administration is focusing on maintaining a dialogue with Moscow, while seeking to develop deterrence measures in concert with European countries.
U.S. and allied officials have discussed a variety of sanctions that could possibly deter Russia. But all of the measures that could possibly cut deep enough for Russia to care would also cause pain in Europe, which is highly dependent on Russia for winter energy supplies.
Senator Angus King of Maine, a member of the Senate Intelligence Committee, said in an interview that if an invasion does take place, the first sign will be in cyberspace.
“I don’t think there’s a slightest doubt that if there is an invasion or other kind of incursion into Ukraine, it will start with cyber,” said Mr. King, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.
Mr. King has long argued that the United States and its allies need to think more deeply about how to deter cyberattacks. The United States, Mr. King said, should issue a declaratory policy about what the consequences for such attacks will be.