In Kyiv, the Ukrainian counterattack has pushed the Russian troops west and forced them to call in reinforcements as they try to encircle the city, said Mr. Kagan, an expert on the Russian military who leads the Critical Threats Project at the American Enterprise Institute.
While it is often easier to defend than attack, especially in a complex multifront invasion, the Ukrainians have taken advantage of the Russian decision to use too small a force, sometimes only two battalions at a time, to take key points.
“They have been much more evenly matched at the tactical level than they should have been, had the Russians conducted the operations well,” Mr. Kagan said. “The Ukrainians have just been much smarter about this than the Russians.”
The Ukrainians have been far more successful in the north, defending Kyiv and Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, than they have been in the south, where better trained Russian forces in Crimea have had more success.
“In the south, on the Crimean front, when the Ukrainians are engaged in mechanized combat they are losing,” Mr. Bullock said.
However, the public might not be aware of that because of a bias in the information that is available to them. The Ukrainian government has publicized its victories and Russian attacks that killed civilians, but not battlefield losses of its mechanized units.
“The Ukrainians have been more successful than we expected them to be, but there is an availability bias in the open source,” Mr. Bullock said. “We see Ukraine’s success and prowess. We are not seeing as much about Ukraine’s losses.”