As inflation uncertainty lingers and another wave of virus prevents a return to normal life, several measures of consumer confidence have shown that people are becoming less optimistic. The University of Michigan survey has shown sentiment faltering as prices have risen, and the Conference Board’s index ticked down in January.
Inflation F.A.Q.
Card 1 of 6What is inflation? Inflation is a loss of purchasing power over time, meaning your dollar will not go as far tomorrow as it did today. It is typically expressed as the annual change in prices for everyday goods and services such as food, furniture, apparel, transportation and toys.
What causes inflation? It can be the result of rising consumer demand. But inflation can also rise and fall based on developments that have little to do with economic conditions, such as limited oil production and supply chain problems.
Where is inflation headed? Officials say they do not yet see evidence that rapid inflation is turning into a permanent feature of the economic landscape, even as prices rise very quickly. There are plenty of reasons to believe that the inflationary burst will fade, but some concerning signs suggest it may last.
Is inflation bad? It depends on the circumstances. Fast price increases spell trouble, but moderate price gains can lead to higher wages and job growth.
How does inflation affect the poor? Inflation can be especially hard to shoulder for poor households because they spend a bigger chunk of their budgets on necessities like food, housing and gas.
Can inflation affect the stock market? Rapid inflation typically spells trouble for stocks. Financial assets in general have historically fared badly during inflation booms, while tangible assets like houses have held their value better.
“You have very high inflation, so people are seeing an erosion of their purchasing power,” said Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board, noting that the resurgent virus is also to blame. “People will have higher confidence once we’re beyond Omicron.”
Fed officials and Wall Street economists alike expect price gains to fade this year, but it is not clear how much or how quickly they will do so. The central bank forecast 2.6 percent inflation by the end of the year as of its December meeting, but Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, said this week that the situation has probably slightly worsened since then.
“We are attentive to the risks that persistent real wage growth in excess of productivity could put upward pressure on inflation,” Mr. Powell said during a news conference on Wednesday.
Mr. Powell had in December specifically cited the previously Employment Cost Index reading — which came in high during the third quarter — as one reason that the Fed had decided to shift from stoking growth to preparing to fight back if inflation becomes long-lasting.
The fact that the measure did not pick up as sharply as expected in the final quarter of the year could give investors some confidence that the central bank will not further speed up its plans to withdraw economic help.