Employers — especially restaurants, hotels and other businesses trying to get back on their feet after last year’s lockdowns — have been complaining for months that they can’t find the workers they need. Many of them blame the $300 a week in supplemental unemployment benefits that the federal government has been paying out since the start of the year, basically arguing that the government is paying people to look for work. Republicans have seized on those complaints, and many Republican-led states are now planning to end the benefits earlier than the planned September cutoff date.
Democrats offer a couple of different counterarguments. The first is that unemployment benefits aren’t a major factor in keeping workers off the job market, or at least their role in that is unproven. They argue that other issues, such as child-care disruptions and fear of the coronavirus, could also be contributing. And they point to some research from last summer, when the federal supplement was even bigger, which found little impact on the job market — although it’s important to note that last summer was a very different moment for both the pandemic and the economy.
The second argument, which I hear more from progressive activists than from elected officials, is essentially: “Sure, maybe unemployment benefits are keeping some people at home, but that’s not such a bad thing.” They see government aid as giving workers a bit more leverage to demand better pay and benefits and safer working conditions.
It bears noting that the pandemic isn’t over yet, and fewer than half of Americans are fully vaccinated. But many open jobs involve in-person work. How much of a role do economists think safety concerns are playing in unemployed workers’ decision not to return?
It’s really hard to say. The employment data released on Friday was collected in mid-May, when only a bit more than a third of Americans had been fully vaccinated. So it’s certainly not crazy to think a lot of people were still nervous about going back to in-person work. Since then, 12 million more people have gotten fully vaccinated, and millions more have had at least one dose. So if those people return to the job market in June, it should start to ease the labor supply issues.
On the other hand, millions of people got vaccinated between the April and May jobs reports, and we didn’t see any huge influx of people back into the labor force. And it’s not clear that there is a strong correlation in state-level data between vaccinations (or Covid cases) and jobs.