More than 1.1 million votes have already been cast, according to data from the nonpartisan Virginia Public Access Project, down from the 2.8 million people who voted leading up to Election Day in 2020 but up sharply from the 195,000 early votes in the 2017 election for governor.
Tom Bonier, the chief executive of TargetSmart, a Democratic data firm, wrote on Sunday that Black turnout in the early vote was down slightly from 2020 levels, while the percentage of young voters was “lagging badly behind previous benchmarks.”
The share of rural voters casting ballots early was up sharply, and Republican voters appeared far more enthusiastic about the election than Democrats did, he said.
That could ratchet up the drama surrounding who shows up at the polls on Tuesday. “Election Day will be decisive,” Mr. Bonier said.
On the ground, officials working on voter turnout for the Democratic ticket said they were finding Black voters far less engaged in this year’s election than in contests during Mr. Trump’s presidency, when the president’s constant Twitter commentary provided a steady supply of outrage.
“Because Trump is not in office, there’s no longer a constant barrage of foolery for them to pay attention to,” said Angela Angel, a senior adviser for Black Lives Matter PAC, who was canvassing Black neighborhoods in Virginia Beach on Monday. “Good or bad, it drew them into politics.”
Mr. McAuliffe has sought to engage Black voters in the campaign through a series of high-profile Black surrogates. He reminded reporters on Monday that he had appeared at rallies with former President Barack Obama, Vice President Kamala Harris and Stacey Abrams, the voting rights activist and former Democratic legislator from Georgia.