Policymakers expect inflation will fade as the economy gets through a volatile pandemic reopening period, but how quickly that will happen is unclear. Prices have climbed faster than officials at the Fed had predicted earlier this year, certain measures of consumer inflation expectations have risen — something that could make inflation a self-fulfilling prophecy if it becomes more extreme — and some officials at the central bank are increasingly wary. At the same time, markets have become more sanguine about the outlook for inflation.
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Part of June’s annual jump owes to a data quirk called the “base effect,” which makes gains in the price index look artificially high this year. The quirk was at its most extreme in May and started to fade slightly in the latest data, but it remains a factor behind the larger-than-usual increase.