Menendez, who opposed the original nuclear agreement in 2015 and has criticized the current deal under discussion, has signaled he will insist on the Senate having its say. In February, he teamed up with Senator Lindsey Graham, a Republican of South Carolina, to propose his own diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff.
“There is no chance in bringing Senator Menendez on board, and the alternative that he offers is unworkable for the administration,” Vaez said. “I think it’s a lost cause.”
State Department officials caution that “an agreement is neither imminent nor certain,” as one put it. The administration is also still examining its legal options regarding congressional review of a potential deal, which might not technically qualify as “new.”
If an Iran deal is put to a vote in the Senate, Menendez’s reaction will be crucial. Republicans most likely will uniformly oppose it. The administration can still afford to lose a handful of Democrats, because only 41 votes would be needed to allow a revived agreement to proceed. But it might take some arm twisting to round up enough votes to win.
Ben Cardin, the hawkish Maryland senator, has already expressed concerns about delisting the Revolutionary Guards. Other influential Democrats on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, such as Chris Coons of Delaware, have said little in support of a fresh deal.
A defeat in the Senate could deal the president a damaging blow on one of his signature foreign policy initiatives, supporters of the talks warn. And given Iran’s rapid advance toward producing weapons-grade uranium, should diplomacy fail, the president could be facing the prospect of a new conflict in the Middle East on top of a grinding war in Ukraine.