If the Omicron variant further delays the return of workers and the easing of supply shortages, that could lead to more and longer-lasting inflation. But a new wave of virus cases could also hurt the demand side of the economy, leading people to spend less at restaurants and movie theaters and provoking a new wave of layoffs.
Understand the Supply Chain Crisis
Card 1 of 5Covid’s impact on the supply chain continues. The pandemic has disrupted nearly every aspect of the global supply chain and made all kinds of products harder to find. In turn, scarcity has caused the prices of many things to go higher as inflation remains stubbornly high.
Almost anything manufactured is in short supply. That includes everything from toilet paper to new cars. The disruptions go back to the beginning of the pandemic, when factories in Asia and Europe were forced to shut down and shipping companies cut their schedules.
First, demand for home goods spiked. Money that Americans once spent on experiences were redirected to things for their homes. The surge clogged the system for transporting goods to the factories that needed them and finished products piled up because of a shortage of shipping containers.
Now, ports are struggling to keep up. In North America and Europe, where containers are arriving, the heavy influx of ships is overwhelming ports. With warehouses full, containers are piling up. The chaos in global shipping is likely to persist as a result of the massive traffic jam.
No one really knows when the crisis will end. Shortages and delays are likely to affect this year’s Christmas and holiday shopping season, but what happens after that is unclear. Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, said he expects supply chain problems to persist “likely well into next year.”
That would put the Fed in a difficult position, forcing it to choose between withdrawing support for the economy in the face of rising unemployment and allowing inflation to accelerate unchecked.
Mr. Powell has at times acknowledged that the two parts of the Fed’s job — fostering maximum employment and maintaining stable prices — could be coming into tension. He nodded to the conflict again Tuesday, while emphasizing that controlling inflation is a critical goal.
“To get back to the kind of great labor market we had before the pandemic, we’re going to need a long expansion,” Mr. Powell said. “To get that, we’re going to need price stability.”
Mr. Williams said he was confident the Fed could chart a course that would allow the labor market to continue to improve while simultaneously reining in inflation.
“How you deal with those trade-offs is something that we’ve studied for a long time and we have experience with,” he said. He added that he has seen little evidence so far that consumers and businesses have come to expect higher inflation to last long term — a chief worry for the Fed, because a lasting shift in expectations could make inflation harder for policymakers to control.
“If inflation stays too high for too long, that will eventually seep into people’s longer-term inflation expectations,” he said.