Russia’s reliance on unguided bombs for its warplanes over Ukrainian airspace has caused confusion among government and civilian weapons analysts alike since the invasion began on Feb. 24, given that just three years ago Russia showed that it did have laser- and satellite-guided weapons — which it used to attack hospitals in Syria.
The difference between Russia’s airstrikes in Syria and in Ukraine, however, is vast, a senior Defense Department analyst said. In Syria, Russian warplanes could fly unopposed and loiter over their targets for as long as they wanted to before dropping a guided bomb — something that Ukrainian jets and surface-to-air missiles make impossible.
Defense Department officials also say that Russia’s targeting problem has been compounded by a failure to invest adequately in surveillance drones. Just two unarmed Russian models — the Forpost and Orlan — have been observed, while Ukraine has been hitting Russian troops and vehicles with missiles fired by TB2 drones purchased from Turkey.
The problem has also been revealed, U.S. officials said, to be one of scale: Russia has not been able to use the handful of guided bombs it used in certain parts of Syria to support the needs of a massive ground campaign in a country as large as Ukraine. And furthermore, Russian cruise missiles fired at targets in Ukraine have at times missed their targets or even failed completely after launch, American officials said.
They added that Russian war planners have most likely not been able to properly develop so-called target packages — a series of instructions fed into cruise missiles before flight that include instructions on course headings and altitudes that will bring the weapon to its intended destination — for them.
“Syria provided an opportunity to kind of evaluate in an operational real-world situation many of those new systems that the Russians have been developing for quite a long time,” a Defense Department official said in an interview. “But they weren’t pushed to do something at scale, and so when you try to scale that up for something like Ukraine you’re really stressing the system, and could highlight some issues there.”