Even with a mild resurgence for Cabrera and Pujols this season, baseball is girding itself for a time without them. Predicting how long they have left is difficult, as both players have stuck around despite having little left to offer beyond some occasional right-handed pop. But it is easy to say that we won’t see players reaching similar milestones for quite a while.
As for 500 home runs, a five-year wait (or longer) seems likely.
Nelson Cruz of the Tampa Bay Rays was 57 homers short of 500 through Saturday, but he turned 41 on July 1 and is likely to fade at some point despite no evidence of that process having started. The next highest player on the active list, Robinson Cano, turns 39 in October, and after being suspended for the 2021 season, it is hard to see him hitting 166 more homers.
Giancarlo Stanton needed 168 through Saturday, an attainable number for a 31-year-old who once hit 59 in a single season. But he has only 27 over the last three seasons combined, and his complicated health history makes him a wild card.
Justin Upton, Joey Votto and Evan Longoria — Nos. 4, 5 and 6 on the active list — seem too old and far away to make a run at the total, even if Votto is doing his best Henry Aaron impression in recent days.
That leaves the most likely candidate, beyond Stanton, to be Trout, who turned 30 this month. He is 190 away and, with decent health, could get there in five or six seasons.