What are the downsides of a lockout?
Even though it is the off-season, Manfred conceded that a lockout is “bad for our business.” No games or paychecks are being missed over the winter, but Clark said players considered the lockout “provocative.”
“The moment that you declare a lockout, you really push fans into the players’ camp,” Jarvis said. “You really play into the players’ argument that, ‘Hey, even though we’re the reason that you’re coming out to see the games, you won’t be able to see the games because of what management did.’ It is much better for management to force the players to go on strike so that management can say, ‘Hey, we want the games to go on. It’s the players who are refusing to show up.’”
Jarvis said that, at least, this work stoppage was coming during a time when other sports are in season: the N.B.A., the N.F.L., the N.H.L., and college football. But for ardent baseball fans who intensely follow their team’s hot stove moves, he said a lockout is bad because the activity has stopped. For the average fan, he said, a lockout isn’t going to make a difference. That is, until spring training. If a new agreement is not struck by then, the casual fan will start to notice when the usual schedule is altered. More will when the regular season is affected.
“Right now, the calendar favors ownership,” said Michael LeRoy, a professor and sports labor expert at the University or Illinois at Urbana-Champaign. “Players can’t sign free-agent deals and they’re going to get anxious about that. But if players are able to hold fast through late January or February, now the advantage shifts to the players. It’s not very common, but there are times that lockouts convert to strikes. My concern about this is that a lockout would not be resolved quickly, and that in time it would morph into a strike and it would last into spring training and beyond.”
LeRoy said there have been roughly 20 work stoppages in the four major North American sports leagues since the 1960s with almost all of them won by management. The lone exception: the 1994-95 baseball players’ strike.