Had the season ended in Week 17, the Cincinnati Bengals’ A.F.C. North-clinching 34-31 upset of Kansas City would likely have been moved to prime time and served as a thrilling climax. Both teams, like the others mentioned above, still have potential first-round byes and home playoff games at stake, but they will fight for them against eliminated opponents who may shift into evaluate-the-backups mode. Watching the scoreboards will be more informative and interesting than watching the games.
The 16-regular-season-game, 12-playoff-team format, which lasted from 1990 through 2020, created a delicate equilibrium that made compelling final weeks possible. Playoff berths were relatively scarce, while first-round byes were precious but reasonably attainable. The best and worst teams sometimes still had little to play for in their season finales, but there were still plenty of games between quality opponents with meaningful stakes in between.
The league upset that equilibrium by adding two wild-card berths and eliminating two first-round byes in 2020, then lengthening the regular season to 17 games this year. Division winners with no chance to claim a first-round bye, like the Cowboys and the Buccaneers, may still be motivated to earn a higher seed so they can face a weaker first-round opponent and perhaps gain an extra home game later in the postseason. But that’s not a very compelling hook for casual viewers.