Miami Dolphins at Tennessee Titans,
Line: Titans -3.5 | Total: 41
It’s time for the Dolphins (8-7) to face reality. Their seven straight wins have given them (at least for now) the A.F.C.’s final wild-card spot, but those victories came against the Covid-19-ravaged Saints and Ravens, and the weak prey of the Giants, Texans, Jets (twice) and Panthers — teams that will all be selecting in the top eight of the upcoming draft.
The Titans (10-5), with receiver A.J. Brown healthy from a chest injury that kept him out of three games, should bring Miami back to earth. The Dolphins’ blitz-happy defense can get pressure on Ryan Tannehill, but if the Titans can protect him long enough for him to get the ball to Brown, they should more than handle Miami’s one-note offense. Pick: Titans -3
Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots,
Line: Patriots -15.5 | Total: 41.5
As we’ve said in previous weeks, the Jaguars (2-13) have been the N.F.L.’s universal “get-right” opponent: the doormat that allows an elite team to get its rhythm back after a frustrating loss. Now it’s New England’s turn. The Patriots (9-6) have lost back-to-back games after Mac Jones’s production slipped from his normally efficient standards. In losses to the Colts and Bills, Jones completed 51.9 percent of his passes, a far cry from his 67.2 percent completion rate for the season, and threw two interceptions in both games.
He will likely play better against Jacksonville, whose defense is average against the pass and allows 229 yards per game. The Patriots’ defense should also pounce on Trevor Lawrence, who will play without the starting running back James Robinson (ankle). The spread is large, but after losing control of the A.F.C. East, New England will likely want to run up the score. Pick: Patriots -15.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Jets,
Line: Buccaneers -13.5 | Total: 41.5
The Buccaneers (11-4) can coast to the playoffs while key starters heal, as their next two games are against the Jets (4-11) and Panthers, the league’s bottom feeders. Running back Leonard Fournette (hamstring) is on injured reserve and receiver Mike Evans’s status is unclear as he deals with a hamstring injury and was placed on the Covid-19 list.
Without Evans and Chris Godwin, Tom Brady will continue rebuilding his chemistry with Antonio Brown, who caught 10 passes for 101 yards in his return from a three-game suspension. The Jets allow the fifth-most passing yards per game (250) and will struggle even against Tampa Bay’s backups. Any euphoria remaining from their gutsy win against Jacksonville last week will be short-lived. Pick: Buccaneers -13.5