It is hard to predict how Judge will age, because there has never been a player his size to use as a basis for comparison. Judge is the only position player in the history of the sport, according to Baseball Reference, to be at least 6 feet 7 inches and 275 pounds.
Adam Dunn was close, an inch shorter than Judge and a little heavier. A reliable 40-homer hitter through age 30, Dunn did not age well and was finished before his 35th birthday. The better comparison is Judge’s teammate, Giancarlo Stanton, who is listed at 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds and is signed through age 37.
The Yankees accepted that contract (with some salary relief) in a trade with Miami after the 2017 season. It was natural for them to commit to Judge for the same term as Stanton, who is about two and a half years older. But was it smart?
Stanton, who rifled a homer into the first row of right field seats on Friday, has had two healthy seasons in New York, and two cut short by injuries. Judge has followed a similar pattern: he was durable as a rookie and again last season, but missed 37 percent of the Yankees’ games in the three years in between.
This season, Judge may be forced to miss the Yankees’ games in Toronto. Only players vaccinated against the coronavirus will be allowed into Canada, and Judge has been coy about his vaccination status. Cashman would not say what role, if any, that has played in negotiations.