For Elias, a former pitcher at Yale, there is a more recent parallel: the Houston Astros of the 2010s. Elias was an assistant general manager to Jeff Luhnow, who inherited the majors’ weakest team before the 2012 season and kept it that way for two more years, exploiting a system that allows the worst teams to spend the most money on amateur talent.
The blueprint worked for both the Astros and the Chicago Cubs, who both won championships in the 2010s, and as the players’ union negotiates a new collective bargaining agreement with Major League Baseball, it is hoping for rules that discourage so-called tanking. But when Baltimore hired Elias in November 2018, a long, protracted reconstruction seemed like the sensible option.
Under Elias’s predecessor, Dan Duquette, the Orioles led the American League in regular-season victories from 2012 through 2016. But the farm system was thin, the team had essentially abandoned international scouting, and rivals had lapped the Orioles in the use of data. Attendance had cratered, too.